What’s behind the nuclear and other deals?

A “better” nuclear deal and fresh long-term arrangements for heavy armament including an aircraft carrier were reported to be the highlights of the trip of the Indian Prime Minister to Russia in the second week of December 2009.

One and a half years after inking a civil nuclear deal with the US, Mr Manmohan Singh signed a deal with Russia which is “better” for the Indian side than the “123” agreement signed with the US. The agreement with Russia is expected to result in much firmer fuel supply arrangements to India, which would remain operative even if Russia, as a member of the “nuclear suppliers’ group” has to take cognizance of a nuclear test by India. Already, the construction of three more nuclear reactors has been announced – two of them are to be located at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu – where two nuclear reactors which were being supplied under an older (1988) agreement with Russia are already under construction – while Haripur in Bengal is being considered as the site for the fifth reactor. The deal reached with Russia is to replace the earlier agreement of 1988.

While nuclear fuel supply to India from Russia under the new agreement will be “guaranteed”, meaning that the supply would continue even in the event of India conducting a nuclear test, the “123” agreement with the US, on the other hand specifies that nuclear cooperation would be cut off in such a case. It may be recalled that the “123” nuclear deal was reached in the face of opposition not only in India, but also in the US. The final agreement has a host of clauses said to be ‘restrictive’ for the Indian side. Though the agreement was signed about a year and a half ago, it is also reported that the discussions with the US on a fuel reprocessing facility have been caught up in finalising the details. The “guaranteed” nuclear fuel supply to India from Russia is expected not only to put it in a better bargaining position in regard to trade with other nuclear supplying countries; it is also expected to speed up the finalisation of agreements pending with the US. 

Indian officials and admirals had been engaged in prolonged and at times bitter negotiations with their Russian counterparts about the huge escalation in cost demanded by the Russian side for the refitting of the aircraft carrier “Admiral Gorshkov” which was to be bought by the Indian government. It is now reported that these are now drawing to a close and that India would be paying as much as 2.5 billion USD more for the refit which is expected to be completed in 2013. The Indian military establishment wants to use this aircraft carrier, along with another being constructed indigenously at the Cochin shipyard, to bolster its naval power. In addition, agreements were also made on the supply of other military equipment and spare parts as well as for active cooperation in sharing of intelligence. A long term deal on weapons, aircraft, spares and maintenance was finalised which is to run from 2011 to 2020.

In addition to the nuclear and defence – related deals, discussions were also held on several other issues including Indian firms participating in the vast pharmaceutical sector of Russia. A plan to boost trade between Russia and India to USD 20 billion by 2015 was announced.

One of the important points of convergence highlighted duing Manmohan Singh’s visit was on Afghanistan. Both countries regard Afghanistan as part of the sphere of influence, as also a a place to block US, Pakistan. These two ruling classes supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the period leading up to the US war on Afghanistan. Under the regime of Karzai, India has once again made strategic inroads in Afghanistan. Both India and Russia want to prevent a regime from being established in that countrey which would be hostile to their interests. This is why, in the joint declaration, they declared that there is no “moderate Taliban” referring to moves in US and Pakistan to establish a government more close to Pakistan.

The erstwhile USSR was once the biggest military supplier of India.  It was also one of the biggest trading partners of India in the seventies and eighties of the last century. The situation changed after its breakdown and the liberalisation and globalisation of the nineties and the first decade of this century. Meanwhile, the Russian bourgeoisie has seen its economic fortunes swing upwards with the boom in the oil trade and downwards with its fall and the general economic downturn of the last year. As the bourgeoisie of a vast country with rich natural and energy resources, it wishes to regain its position of dominance. It clearly wishes to use the traditional ties with India to its economic advantage as well. The building of three more nuclear reactors costing about 1.5 billion US dollars each is expected to help the Russian economy in difficult times. It is also significant that several big businessmen from India attended a meet addressed by Manmohan Singh and Putin.

The Indian government has acted to further the imperialist vision of the big bourgeoisie of India. It wishes to strengthen its military and economic dominance in the region. It is using its old ties with the Russian establishment to strengthen its negotiating position with respect to the US. Playing off one major power against another is a tactic which the Indian establishment has used several decades ago, for example when it signed a treaty with the erstwhile USSR in 1971, before going to war with Pakistan which was then being backed by the US. The present Indian dispensation would like to continue to use the rivalry between the US and Russia to its advantage. It is clear that strategic geo-political and economic interests on both sides are behind the nuclear and weapons supply and economic agreements reached during the visit of Manmohan Singh to Russia in December 2009.